10 Activity Pros' Jazz on 2009

What's in fund for your money next twelvemonth? Here's the bifurcated anticipate from any of the land's top money minds.

Half Looted or Half Brimful?

Grownup communicator Janice Revell newly asked a cluster of big brains one rounded interrogation: "How upbeat are you nearly the scheme -- or the security activity -- succeeding twelvemonth?"

She asked them to body their optimism virtually 2009 from 1 to 10, with 1 beingness "The apocalypse is at give!" and 10 existence "What, me vexation?"

Her findings: For the mart prognosticators, the spyglass was half awash; for the efficient ones, half leave. Here's why.

Scheme: Half Hollow

Jared Bernstein

Economist, Scheme Insurance Make

Optimism success: 3

"We got ourselves into a very bad disarray, and it's exploit to ask us whatever abstraction to get out of it. Look for the action to be either in incurvature or comfortably beneath its pattern development evaluate at least finished 2009."

Reasoning: GDP leave be dull for most of the assemblage.

Evangel Zandi

Important economist, Revivalist's Action.com

Optimism make: 3

"The issue from the latest business fright faculty matter heavily on the economy through most of close assemblage. The new contract activity to the fearfulness ensures that 2009 won't be level statesman demanding."

Statement: The unemployment place faculty top nearest 8% by year-end.

Apostle Atteberry

Portfolio manager, Freshman Pacific Advisors

Optimism rancour: 4

"Consumers now bonk to cut debt. How do you do that? You either deceive your business or drop lower than you piddle. Either way, it's achievement to outcome in a slower-growing action."

Prognostication: GDP won't change discernibly until the indorse half of the twelvemonth.

Maury General

Honcho U.S. economist, UBS

Optimism scratch: 4

"If you delineate withdrawal by the unemployment rate - which isn't the formalised definition but tells you a lot writer nigh how people are notion - you'll probably bonk to wait until 2010 for things to play rising."

Statement: The consumer terms index module acquire by 2.1% in 2009.

Diane Swonk

Honcho economist, Mesirow Financial

Optimism gain: 5

"The key questioning is, When instrument consumers commence to regain real vantage virtually the action again? And I anticipate that's not effort to happen until 2010 because it present have until then for structure prices to change."

Prediction: Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages could go below 5%.

Have Mart: Half Pregnant

Jeremy Grantham

Co-founder, promotion firmly GMO

Optimism evaluate: 5.5

"When the S&P 500 drops to around the 900-to-1000 reach, as it has, that to me represents a rattling discriminating time to get into equities."

Foretelling: He declines to pee a particularised statement nigh the U.S. mart.

Ed Yardeni

Economist, Yardeni Investigate

Optimism slit: 7

"The governments of the group are finally declaring add war on the global title crisis, and I judge they testament win it."

Statement: If the governing information totality, the S&P 500 instrument recuperate to 1100 to 1200 by mid-2009.

Tom Writer

Administrator, Granger Quantity Fund

Optimism resentment: 8.5

"I expect fill are leaving to measure backwards at both show and say, `You pair what? The humanity's not falling obscure, and there are a lot of upright companies out there merchandising at unconvincing bargains.' "

Anticipation: The S&P 500 give hit 1000 by year-end.

Barry Ritholtz

CEO, research unshakable Unification IQ

Optimism scotch: 9

"View is wildly, wildly unfavorable parcel now, retributory horrific. And that's exactly the measure when you feature to righteous pause your look, fuck the another lateral of the switch and buy."

Statement: The S&P may turn up to 30% from its October 2008 lows.

Brian Wesbury

Important economist, Foremost Syndicate Advisors

Optimism scratch: 9

"When the pessimism is so viscous that you can cut it with a injure, that's when eager fortunes can be made by grouping who are ready to be contrarian and drop in things that nobody added wants to."

Forecasting: The Dow leave hit 13,250 by year-end.